Sunday, March 29, 2009

Schiller on a 'theory of the mind'

Robert Schiller is the current economist who, among economists, as far as I can tell, is the most committed to uncovering the social-psychological bases of the current financial crisis. Here he is, writing in the NY Times:

[F]orecasts based on a theory of mind are subject to egregious error. They cannot accurately predict the future. But the uncomfortable truth has to be that such forecasts need to be respected alongside econometric forecasts, which cannot reliably predict the future, either.

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